While most ASX juniors continue to battle for attention in a sluggish market, a handful of commodity stories cut through the noise this week.
Bubalus Resources pushed ahead on four Victorian fronts, copper fundamentals tightened further as supply shocks hit major producers and demand forecasts climbed. And AVZ Minerals took a meaningful step toward resolving the Manono saga that’s kept shareholders locked up since 2022.
Here’s what stood out:
- Bubalus Resources ramps up drilling in Victoria, even as its share price drifts.
- Copper outlook tightens again, with multiple new supply shocks hitting the market.
- AVZ Minerals enters settlement talks and signals intent to sell Manono stake.
Bubalus Resources (ASX: BUS) drilling four Victorian gold sites
Bubalus Resources (ASX: BUS) has ramped up exploration across four Victorian gold projects, all within spitting distance of behemoth Fosterville.
The company has now wrapped up around 700 metres of diamond drilling at Crosbie South, targeting high-grade gold just 20km from one of Australia’s top-producing high-grade gold mines. Results are expected in early July.
Next up is Crosbie North in Q3, where BUS is aiming to drill off the back of strong surface results, including rock chips grading over 12g/t gold.
At Avon Plains, a former shallow high-grade gold mine, an IP survey will soon get underway to help define targets ahead of Q4 drilling.
Meanwhile, grassroots exploration is ongoing at Murrundindi to develop leads in underexplored terrain.
Yet BUS shares have slipped from 16c to 11.5c during May, even as gold holds above US$3,300/oz and investment banks like UBS forecast further upside to US$3,800.
It’s rare to find a gold junior progressing across four fronts in a fertile area with plenty of money in the tin (almost $4m in cash at last check).
Equities Club backed BUS with on-market purchases when the gold assets were first vended in, we’ve added along the way and we’re still on the register.
We’ve seen plenty of juniors promise aggressive campaigns and deliver far less. BUS has done the opposite, which we reckon reflects broader small-cap market sentiment.
If BUS hits at any of these drill campaigns this year, the current valuation will look absurd in hindsight.
Copper price outlook tightens as disruptions and decline hit supply
Copper continues to grind higher, now sitting at roughly US$4.70/lb, with most banks lifting their price forecasts quietly but steadily.
On the supply side, three stories grabbed our attention this week:
- Kamoa-Kakula in the DRC – One of the world’s largest and highest-grade copper operations got flooded out. Co-owned by Ivanhoe Mines and Zijin, the mine churned out over 390,000 tonnes of copper in 2023. When something this big goes offline (even temporarily), it sends ripples through global supply chains.
- Ore grade decline – The industry’s oldest headache persists. Major mines like Escondida and Grasberg are now mining more waste per tonne of copper extracted. Lower grades mean higher costs, more energy usage, and less room to move when prices dip. It’s a slow but constant drag on global output.
- Price incentives lagging – A recent study from the Society of Economic Geologists suggests copper prices need to at least double just to meet future demand. The study emphasised that slow mine development (mainly owing to regulatory approvals) will push prices substantially higher.
Meanwhile, demand isn’t going anywhere.
Electrification trends are locked in. EV adoption, grid upgrades and the copper-hungry data centres powering AI expansion are all accelerating, regardless of supply headaches.
BloombergNEF forecasts a structural deficit of 5–6 million tonnes annually by 2035 if investment doesn’t ramp up. For context, global copper production in 2024 was around 23 million tonnes.
That projected shortfall is nearly a quarter of the annual supply, and copper investors should be taking notice.
Copper juniors with credible exploration footprints are starting to attract renewed attention. Projects with scale, simplicity, and proximity to infrastructure are likely to benefit as capital rotates back into the sector.
AVZ Minerals enters settlement talks over Manono lithium stake
One of the most widely-held suspended stocks in the retail investor world just took a step forward.
AVZ Minerals, delisted from the ASX in 2024, confirmed this week it’s entered settlement discussions with the DRC government over its disputed stake in the Manono lithium deposit – The largest undeveloped hard rock lithium asset globally.
The update from AVZ (published 26 May) reveals that proceedings before the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) have been temporarily paused for commercial negotiations.
At the same time, multiple African media outlets have reported that KoBold Metals, a US-based company backed by Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, is the likely buyer of AVZ’s stake.
According to translated reports from Bankable Africa and Mongabay, AVZ is seeking to settle the dispute to clear a path for the deal.
This lines up with what we flagged weeks ago: AVZ and the lithium pivot: KoBold’s next move?
Manono in a globally significant lithium asset that hosts one of the world’s largest hard rock lithium resources at incredible grades and low impurties. It sits within reach of critical infrastructure too.
BloombergNEF’s Electric Vehicle Outlook says lithium demand needs to grow nearly fivefold by 2035 to support global EV adoption targets.
KoBold’s involvement suggests the US is keen to counter China’s dominance in battery materials, especially across Africa. If the deal goes forward, it could deliver a long-awaited return for AVZ shareholders who’ve been locked up since 2022.
There’s still a way to go, but this week’s announcement is a positive, meaningful step.
The Wrap
While most juniors battle for scraps of attention, a few stories actually cut through this week. BUS is quietly executing on multiple fronts, copper fundamentals are tightening by the day, and AVZ’s long saga at Manono looks like it’s finally moving toward resolution.
For those tracking ASX juniors, it’s a reminder that patience, positioning, and timing still matter.
The market may be tough out there, but we’re staying the course.
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