June’s nearly done. Tax-loss season’s behind us. Time to turn the page. July marks a fresh start, and the second half of 2025 is already shaping up to be a big one.
This week, the copper price took off on tight supply and investment banks are getting properly bullish. June’s selling pressure set up some great bargains on the ASX, and the never-ending battle for the Manono lithium deposit continued.
Here’s what stood out:
- Copper storms toward US$12,000/t as Goldman, Citi and BofA tip a bull run
- Small-cap tax-loss selling creates real value for the brave in June
- AVZ shareholders cling to hope after years of delays, courtrooms and geopolitics
- Our $2,500 stock-picking competition enters its last days
Let’s jump in.
We’ve got a new investment coming – our first of 2025 – and it’s one we think could run hard. It’s backed by A-grade management and serious support, so subscribe here to know first.
Copper’s bull case heats up as banks raise targets
Copper’s been labelled a sleeping giant for years, but this week it finally showed the strength many predicted. The metal pushed past US$10,000 per tonne and held firm.
Tightening supply, increasing demand in electrification, and a lack of discoveries have copper primed to continue its run.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month copper target to US$12,000 per tonne, and so did Bank of America. Meanwhile, Citi expects copper to reach US$15,000 in the coming years under the right conditions.
Three investment banking heavyweights, all aligned on the same theme: the market is structurally undersupplied and discoveries aren’t coming quickly enough to plug the gap.
On the ground, Chinese smelters are fighting over copper feedstock like it’s a Sydney house auction and global inventories (tracked by the LME and Shanghai Futures) are plummeting fast.
The setup for copper now has all the hallmarks of a sustained bull cycle: low stockpiles, weak new supply, and capital flowing back into the commodity space.
Copper is likely to remain a defining theme for the rest of the decade.
For ASX punters, this is where things could get interesting. Junior explorers with high-quality targets are likely to be re-rated quickly. If they hit something decent with the drill bit, you could be looking at a multi-bagger.
Tax-loss selling wraps up – are the ASX small-cap bargains real?
June is a painful time of year to be a small-cap investor as it brings with it a well-known dynamic on the ASX known as “tax-loss selling”. Investors begin clearing out underperforming stocks to lock in capital losses and offset gains elsewhere.
While it’s a logical strategy for portfolios, the result is often brutal selling pressure on small-cap stocks, particularly those with limited news flow.
For seasoned investors, this sell-off period presents a narrow but valuable window to pick up some bargains. Stocks that are down 50 to 70% on the year can be pushed even lower. Not because anything’s fundamentally wrong, but because investors have simply run out of patience.
History’s got a long memory here: This distortion often creates value between share price and company value. Come July, when the tax selling stops and volume returns, many of these beaten-up stocks bounce hard.
The trick is separating what’s being sold for tax reasons versus genuine fundamental problems. Do the work now to find companies with cash, catalysts and low expectations. When the selling pressure lifts, the turnarounds can be swift.
The key is to filter out what is being sold for tax reasons versus what is being sold for fundamental reasons. When tax-motivated selling ends, the buying pressure can return just as fast.
June’s pain can be July’s gain.
AVZ Minerals drag DRC to court over Manono lithium prize
AVZ Minerals and its flagship Manono lithium project is one of the longest-running sagas in ASX history, and the story still isn’t settled.
This week, AVZ resumed arbitration proceedings against the Democratic Republic of Congo through the ICSID framework, a World Bank-backed process for investor-state disputes, after a short pause in May to explore a possible settlement.
The company is pursuing an international legal remedy for what it claims was an unlawful seizure of its 75% interest in Dathcom Mining, the company that owns Manono.
As one of the world’s largest hard rock lithium deposits, Manono had lined up financing, partners, and government support, but when things quickly unravelled, permits were withheld, partner disputes emerged, and eventually, the DRC awarded the mining licence to a Zijin Mining subsidiary – a move AVZ argues was unlawful.
AVZ shares were suspended in May 2022 and delisted in 2024.
Shareholders have been left in limbo, unable to trade their stock and watching from the sidelines as an asset once worth billions becomes entangled in a geopolitical mess.
Kobold Metals – backed by billionaires Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos – has expressed strong interest in partnering with AVZ, but their involvement was contingent on resolving the legal uncertainty with the DRC.
With proceedings now back in motion and no hearing date confirmed, the outcome remains uncertain. AVZ’s claim is being pursued with international legal backing and detailed documentation of approvals and agreements.
For shareholders, it’s been an exhausting wait – years of suspension, shifting timelines and limited communication. Investors will be hoping for a resolution that either restores ownership or triggers a multi-billion dollar damages payout.
Either way, we hope for the best outcome for holders.
Enter our $2,500 ASX stock picking comp – Free entry and only 48 hours left
Our $2,500 stock-picking competition is in its final days – no more procrastinating.
The rules haven’t changed: pick the best-performing ASX stock from July through December, and if you nail it, $2,500 heads your way. Perfect timing for Christmas shopping or a January getaway.
Takes about 30 seconds to enter and costs nothing. If you’ve been sitting on a conviction play all year, this is your chance to put some money where your mouth is.
Give it a crack and send to any mates or fellow stock punters you think might be interested.
Positioning for a small-cap comeback on the ASX
June’s nearly over, and good riddance. Copper’s moving, bargains are sitting there for anyone willing to look, and our new investment isn’t far off.
If you’ve been watching the ASX closely, you’ll know the best stories aren’t always the loudest.
But they’re starting to stir.
Until next week.
General advice warning
The contents of this document are intended to provide general securities advice only and have been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of that you should, before taking any action to acquire or deal in, or follow a recommendation (if any) in respect of any of the financial products or information mentioned in this document, consulting your own investment advisor to consider whether that is appropriate having regard to your own objectives, financial situation and needs. If applicable, you should obtain the Product Disclosure Statement relating to the relevant financial product mentioned in this document (which contains full details of the terms and conditions of the relevant financial product) and consider it before making any decision about whether to acquire the financial product. Whilst the Equities Club Pty Ltd (“Equities Club”) believes information contained in this document is based on information which is believed to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed and no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given or implied and no responsibility for any loss or damage arising in any way for any representation, act or omission is accepted by Equities Club or any officer, agent or employee of Equities Club or any related company.
Neither Equities Club, nor any of its directors, authorised representatives, employees, or agents, makes any representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy, or completeness, of this document or any advice. Nor do they accept any liability or responsibility arising in any way (including negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, this document or advice.
Disclosure
The directors, authorised representatives, employees and associated persons of Equities Club may have an interest in the financial products discussed in this document and they may earn brokerage, commissions, fees and advantages, pecuniary or otherwise, in connection with the making of a recommendation or dealing by a client in such financial products.
Confidentiality notice
The information contained in and accompanying this communication is strictly confidential and intended solely for the use of the intended recipient/s. The copyright in this communication belongs to Equities Club. If you are not the intended recipient of this communication please delete and destroy all copies immediately.
Equities Club Ltd (CAR No. 001308139) is a corporate authorised representative of ShareX Pty Ltd, Australian Financial Services License (AFSL) No. 519872.